You can think of mount runs as flipping a coin, except the chance of getting a heads is much lower. Binomial meaning there are only two outcomes: heads/tails, mount drops/doesn't drop. What's the probability of getting at least one heads out of 3 flips? If you crunch the numbers, it's 88%.īoth flipping a coin and mount drops rely on what's called binomial probability. What's the probability of getting a heads on one flip? 50%. The only difference is the probability of getting a heads on a single try is much higher than 1%. To understand why, think of flipping a coin. The answer to question #2 is more complicated, and involves some math. What is the probability of obtaining a mount after 15,000 attempts? What is the probability of obtaining a mount on one run/attempt? There are two questions at play here, and the answers aren't the same: A mount with a 1% drop chance could never drop even after 15000 attempts
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